Taiwan's Dazhi Paper Mill Taiwan's Zhonghua Pulp & Paper Co., Ltd. suffered a global financial turmoil last year, and its revenue declined significantly. The main reason was that international short-staple pulp prices fell to a trough of 360-380 US dollars/ton in the first quarter of last year. Although the post-paste price rebounded deeper, the quotation returned to the operating cost in the fourth quarter. Therefore, it was not until the fourth quarter that Taiwan’s Zhonghua Pulp Co., Ltd. was able to get rid of the haze and its revenue performance was getting better.
In fact, the international pulp price in the Chinese market since March last year, in other European and American and other international markets began to climb from the bottom in April, and as of February this year, has set a record for 11 consecutive months. The original market expects international pulp prices to rise more than a whole period in November or December last year. However, under the combination of many factors, the price of pulp will not return. It has not only continued to rise in the fourth quarter of last year, but also in January and February this year. Still rising, it has reversed the bearish situation in the market.
In the first month and February of this year, the international pulp price increased by 30 US dollars / t, the NBSK offer in the North American market has reached 880 US dollars / t, BEK 790 US dollars / t; in the European market, NBSK860 US dollars / t, BEK 760 US dollars / t; In the Asian market, NBSK is about 735~760 USD/t, BEK670~710 USD/t, while in the Chinese market, NBSK is 750~760 USD/t, and BEK is 710~720 USD/t.
Guo Qingxiong, chairman of Taiwan Zhonghua Pulp Co., Ltd. pointed out that for the international pulp price, at the end of last year, it was thought that the uptrend might be temporarily closed before the Chinese lunar calendar, and it is expected that the price will continue to strengthen and the demand of the buyer will be urgent. Since February, the contractual regular price no longer has a trading discount, and as long as there is a quote, the order is placed immediately. In other words, for the buyer, the price is not a problem, and the quantity has become the focus of the trade talks, and the pulp market is so strong. There are mainly several important reasons for strong support for the rising price. One is that the demand for printing and writing paper in Europe has increased, and the pulp used in paper mills has increased. However, due to the difficulty in obtaining raw materials, the closure of pulp mills, delays in shipping, and limited output of Soviet timber in major timber source areas, The shortage of supply in the city; the second is that under the cost consideration of the international pulp mill, many production lines have been shut down, which has greatly reduced the operating rate. In the past, the normal operating rate was over 95%, but it has recently dropped to around 90% or less. The pulp supply is naturally The third is global climate anomalies, such as Europe and the United States and even mainland China, where the climate is particularly cold, and heavy rains in South America, Southeast Asia and other places, leading to obstruction of timber felling, especially the supply of pulp raw materials in the major northern producing countries is seriously insufficient, indirectly The pulp mill is difficult to produce normally, and the amount of pulp is greatly reduced. The fourth is that some large Chinese factories will soon have new cultural paper production capacity, which is about 2 million tons. It is expected to buy pulp raw materials, which will help push up the pulp price. Potential effects, etc. It is understood that China's pulp imports in the first 10 months of last year totaled more than 11.61 million tons, a sharp increase of 45% over the same period of the previous year. The average monthly output of millions of tons was slightly reduced to millions of tons in November last year. The following, but immediately rebounded in December, shows that the demand for pulp in mainland China is very strong. It is reported that due to the difficulty in obtaining the spot market in the international market, China actively rushed into the international market to ship the slurry before the lunar calendar. However, it is estimated that most of the shipping slurry is delayed by 2 to 3 months from the scheduled delivery date. It can be seen that the international pulp shortage.
Guo Qingxiong said that the international pulp mill has been brewing for another wave of pulp prices in March, so the trend of continued pulp prices is obvious. Some people in the international market are even optimistic that the price of pulp should not be softened this year, and it is expected to be maintained. Therefore, this wave of pulp price rise is more promising than the NBSK900/t pulp before the global financial storm in July 2008. The peak price. However, some observer organizations, RSI, predict that the price of pulp will naturally fall back. It may be slightly weaker in the off-season in the third quarter, while the low-end will fall in the fourth quarter, and will gradually turn stronger in the first quarter of next year. .
Some people have raised doubts that the pre-wave international pulp price has reversed and then fell all the way after a brief climb to the peak. This wave of pulp prices has been rising for a year, and it is likely to repeat the same mistakes. However, market participants observe that the front wave is reversed by highs. Turning down, mainly because the inventory was high at the time (more than 30 days of normal stock), but the wave of commercial pulp inventory was low (in the fourth quarter of last year, the inventory was within 27 days), the market demand was tight, the pulp mill did not Inventory pressure, so the support for the price of pulp is strong, and the situation is not the same as the previous wave.
Guo Qingxiong pointed out that since the fourth quarter of last year, Taiwan’s Zhonghua Pulp Co., Ltd. has been in a low inventory of hundreds of tons of stocks. In January this year, it entered a tense situation of zero inventory, and in February, during the Spring Festival holiday, the supply Under the contraction, there is no resistance to the rise in the price of pulp. It is reported that the current price of pulp in Taiwan has exceeded NT$20,000/t, which is equivalent to the international pulp price of US$720/t. The price of pulp continued to rise, driving the growth of Taiwan’s Zhonghua Pulp Company’s revenue. However, Guo Qingxiong said that the pulping cost of the pulp mill is about 600 US dollars/t. The bottom price of 380 US dollars/t last year is far from cost. Now it is hard to rise back to the cost. It can only be said to make up for the previous one. Loss, profit slightly improved.
However, the continued increase in pulp prices has also driven the price of cultural papers to rise. However, as market demand has not increased significantly, paper price adjustments have not kept pace with the speed and magnitude of pulp prices. To avoid imbalances in supply and demand and support paper prices, paper mills have increased their exports. For example, Taiwan’s Zhonghua Pulp Co., Ltd., for example, accounts for 15% to 20% of its total output of cultural paper (about 1500t to 2000t), but its export ratio in 2009 increased to 30% (about 3,000 tons). ~4000t) or more. To this end, Guo Qingxiong, who is also the chairman of the Papermaking Association, called on the industry to maintain the market volume and price stability, and must pass the paper price smoothly to obtain a reasonable profit, and the paper industry can develop healthily.
It is reported that in the downturn of the global financial turmoil last year, Taiwan’s Zhonghua Pulp Co., Ltd. stopped one of its pulp production lines in April and resumed operations in September, in order to meet market demand, especially through small modifications to improve production efficiency and Quality, the output of its two pulp production lines has been increased from 21,000 tons per month to 22,000 tons, an increase of 2% to 5%.
As for the Dingfeng pulp mill in mainland China, which has helped the revenue and surplus of Taiwan Zhonghua Pulp Company in recent years, the output last year exceeded 120,000 tons, which is equivalent to the previous year. It is expected that this year's pulp will add a cooking pot to make the cooking pot from 4 Increased to 5, is expected to increase pulp production by about 3%, and the second phase of the expansion plan has been submitted, this year is expected to be realized.
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