Boxboard paper 2011 continues to be high-profile or into a miracle in the industry

The industry's fixed asset investment grew negatively in a single month. In December 2010, fixed assets investment in the paper and paper products industry was 15.34 billion yuan, down 1.1% year-on-year. From January to December, the accumulated investment reached 134.6 billion yuan, up 8.46% year-on-year. The cumulative investment growth rate was 36.7% from January to March. It has been falling for 10 consecutive months and has a negative value in December 2010. From the perspective of the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the industry, due to the relatively rapid growth of investment in the 2009 and 2010 quarters, it is expected that the supply of the industry will remain abundant in 2011; the growth rate of investment in the past 10 months has dropped significantly, and the industry is expected to be in the second half of 2011. The situation of overcapacity will gradually ease, and the industry is expected to usher in a new round of high-profile in 2012.

Boxboard paper continues to maintain a high degree of prosperity. In 2010, the profitability of cardboard and corrugated paper has been greatly improved; from the supply point of view, new capacity is limited in 2011, and the national elimination of backward production capacity policy will further reduce supply; from the demand point of view, domestic corrugated box high speed The growth rate will increase by 29% in 2010. The trend of high-speed growth in the industry will not change in the short term, especially for high-strength and low-weight paper products. The domestic market is still in a state of short supply, and imports are more dependent; Due to the limited global supply and domestic waste paper recycling rate and utilization rate, it is expected that the price of waste paper will remain at a high level, and the possibility of a sharp rise is small. We judge that the paperboard paper in 2011 will become the paper packaging industry. A wonderful flower.

The growth rate of fixed asset investment in the industry declined for 10 consecutive months, and negative growth occurred in December. In addition, during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, the country continued to eliminate the backward production capacity of papermaking, and the industry is expected to gradually get rid of the state of overcapacity. Looking at the node, we judged that the prosperity of the cardboard paper has arrived. It is recommended that investors actively participate; printing papers other than coated paper will gradually pick up from the third quarter of 2011; coated paper relies heavily on exports. At present, we are facing trade frictions between the countries. We believe that the prosperity of the country is difficult to improve significantly before 2012. It is recommended that investors pay close attention to the changes in export data and trade friction. For the packaging sector, from the perspective of raw material prices, the main fine chemicals The price of the product is still bullish in the first half of 2011, and investors are advised to avoid plastic packaging companies in the near future.

(Article source: Tencent Finance)

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