Lead: Packaging paper, as the only positive growth (production, consumption) in the post-paper era, has returned to a difficult day. Packaging paper has reached a critical juncture.
The output and profit of packaging paper decreased sharply, the paper mill inventory increased by 41%, and the finished paper price was always at a high level.
According to the data disclosed so far, the output of the packaging paper industry has fallen sharply, the profits have fallen sharply, and the paper mill inventory has been significantly higher than in previous years. The foreign waste restriction order has been maintained for more than a year, so that the finished paper price is always at a high level.
The output of the packaging paper industry has dropped significantly:
Compared with the same period of 2017 (January-September), the overall data of all types of paper decreased by 7.2%, and the output of paper products decreased by 21.6% (including carton production accounting for 50.1% and carton production falling by 28.3%). Overlaying trade wars, sluggish domestic demand, persistently high paper prices, and rapid growth in imported paper, packaging paper production declined significantly.
According to the data of corrugated paper, the total import volume has risen to 900,000 tons in September, which is 273% of the same period last year. The growth of imported paper is evident. According to the same proportion, the total imports of corrugated paper will be more than 1.2 million tons at the end of the year, and the total import volume will reach 5.2% of the total demand for corrugated paper. Its scale has gradually exerted influence on the packaging paper market.
The profit of wrapping paper has dropped significantly:
The profit of the paper industry decreased by 22.6% compared with the same period of last year, and the profit of paper products decreased by 19% compared with the same period of last year.
Paper mill inventory is significantly higher than in previous years:
The paper industry inventory amount increased by 41% compared with the same period of last year, while the paper product inventory amount increased by only 7.7% compared with the same period of last year. The above data shows that the downstream processing plants have no longer blindly panicked and predicted the price of finished paper, and they are relatively rational and moderately stocked. Therefore, the pressure on the end market demand is gradually transferred to the paper mill, leading to a significant increase in paper mill inventory.
Finished paper prices are always at a high level:
Note: The reference data comes from Zhuo Chuang
Although the price of packaging paper (box paper, corrugated paper) has fallen recently, it is still at a high level compared to the price in recent years. When this situation becomes the norm, it will force downstream customers to find another suitable packaging. It can replace raw materials, while the pressure of increased cost brings R&D power and makes the use of cartons more efficient, which is not good news for packaging base paper manufacturers.
The packaging paper industry has reached the key node of deep elimination of production capacity, and it is almost impossible to recover during the year.
The packaging paper industry is still taking the old road of scale and cost reduction in the traditional mode. However, with the advent of the industrial Internet era, improving product quality, customized customization and high-profit new products is the future.
All industries face the following rules almost without exception:
Industry formation - initial scale - rapid expansion - elimination of production capacity - quality improvement
Recall that the partners around the packaging paper industry, from raw material recycling to paperboard factories, from printing companies to finished products, all follow this iron law. At present, the packaging paper industry has reached a key node for the deep elimination of production capacity. Although the recent “two highs and one department†have been voiced one after another, providing environmental protection for private enterprises and entrepreneurs may, to a certain extent, slow down the pace of production elimination, but historical The wheel will never go backwards and will only slow down. After the market is reshuffled, the only way out for the packaging paper industry is to improve quality.
Some industry giants have already smelled the changes in the market, so the pace of acquisition of overseas wood pulp has accelerated. The world's unsalted kraft pulp can be sold as a high-grade raw material for the production of packaging paper. The trend of change is worthy of our attention: worldwide sale The unbleached kraft pulp is about 2.5 million tons/year. However, the production capacity of Shanying and Nine Dragons Paper's acquisition/shareholding pulp mill has reached 920,000 tons/year, and if it is used for domestic use (of course it is impossible to fully realize), The total amount has reached 38% of the total market. Controlling the source of key raw materials will take the lead in future markets where quality is the winner.
The bloody hurricane in the packaging paper industry has smelled from the double eleven. In the past years, the world has no longer been used. Even if the wave of finished paper shipments should appear at the end of the previous year's projections, the fact that the demand is sluggish is already in front of the market. The tail-end effect on the finished paper market has made it almost impossible to regain warmth during the year.
What should be done for the future packaging paper industry is not to solve the current problem of headaches, but more should be to look beyond the future, to think about how to face the future customized market, and to seek new product structure and The point of profit growth, even the opening of the arms to meet the arrival of the industrial Internet era.
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