Source: Zhonghua Paper Media
The future development of China's household paper, especially the growth potential of per capita consumption of household paper, is still very large? For this problem, people are often used to refer to the higher development of the US tissue market, but in the future China Consumption of tissue paper may not completely replicate the road to the United States.
With the improvement of the consumption level of the Chinese people and the changes in consumption habits, people have become more and more accustomed to using paper to replace the handcuffs and rags of the past. The field of tissue paper has also become a hot spot for investment in China.
From 2010 to 2017, China's tissue paper production capacity has developed rapidly, with a three-fold increase in growth rate and a compound annual growth rate of 19%, as shown in Figure 1. In 2013, China overtook the United States and became the world's largest consumer of paper. After that, always maintain a leading position, as shown in Figure 2.
The huge population base determines that there is still great potential for the development of household paper in China, but specifically, the future development of China's household paper, especially the growth potential of per capita consumption of household paper, is still much greater? This problem is often accustomed to the development of the US paper market with a higher level of development. However, the consumption of tissue paper in China in the future may not completely replicate the road of the United States.
In general, per capita household paper demand is usually proportional to the per capita GDP of a country. As shown in Figure 3, China's current per capita GDP is lower than that of the United States, and the per capita consumption of household paper is naturally much lower than that of the United States. Then, if China’s GDP per capita is comparable to that of the United States in the future, will per capita consumption of paper consumption reach the current level of the United States? This is not necessarily the case, because in addition to the macro factor of GDP, the consumption level of household paper is also The living habits of a country's residents are related, and residents' living habits can be seen as micro factors that affect the consumption of household paper. For example, as shown in Figure 3, the per capita GDP of Canada, Germany, Taiwan, and Australia is basically the same, but the per capita consumption of household paper is quite different, which is different from each country or region. Culture is related to living habits.
Therefore, when we compare the development of the household paper industry between China and the United States, we also need to pay attention to the customary differences between the two countries. For American families, 43% of the annual food expenditure is spent on eating out. Therefore, in the United States, the amount of household paper consumed by the public domain and commercial services is huge, accounting for more than 30% of the national consumption of household paper, as shown in Figure 4. Show. In China, the paper consumption of commercial services is still relatively low. However, in recent years, with the rise and development of my foreign sales business, the consumption in this field should increase significantly.
However, due to the differences in habits between China and the United States, whether the consumption of tissue paper for Chinese dining and business services will reach the height of the United States in the future, it is not good to say. Because for Chinese families, usually after the young couple has children, the parents of the husband and wife usually help to take care of the children and cook for the young people, which greatly reduces the frequency of young people going out to eat. More economical.
In addition, as shown in Figure 5, China's dependence on commercial pulp is more obvious, because most Chinese paper companies are not able to achieve forestry-pulp-paper integration at present, which means that China's household paper products are more affected by changes in commodity pulp prices. . The use of recycled pulp is one of the effective ways to reduce the cost of products. However, due to government regulations, in addition to toilet paper, higher-grade tissue paper such as facial tissues and handkerchief papers are not allowed to use recycled pulp and paper, and Chinese consumers The recognition of recycled pulp is low, they usually think that the recycled pulp has no original pulp clean and assured.
As shown in Fig. 6, Chinese household paper uses a large amount of chemical pulp paper, and the amount of recycled pulp is limited. Under this circumstance, papermaking enterprises are beginning to seek new ideas to reduce costs, such as reducing the size of paper products. For example, the size of China's best-selling breeze brand handkerchief paper (21cm × 21cm) is slightly smaller than the US Kleenex handkerchief paper size (21.8cm × 21cm). The napkins used by McDonald's in China are made of virgin pulp and the size is 25cm × 26 cm, and the paper used by McDonald's in the United States is made of recycled pulp and has a size of 30.5 cm x 33 cm. Therefore, even if China's per capita GDP reaches the level of the United States, the per capita consumption of household paper may not duplicate the development path of the United States.
As shown in Figure 7, if the United States is the benchmark, then China's tissue paper production has a development potential of 23 million tons, but China should not reach this level, and it may be more accurate to use Japan and South Korea as a reference because The social culture of China, Japan and Korea is more similar, and they all belong to countries with high external dependence on pulp. With Japan as a reference, if China's per capita GDP develops to the level of Japan, then China's domestic paper production will have a development potential of 11 million tons in the future.
Editor in charge: Ge Hongyan
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