November is the season of entering the winter. The carton market in the whole 18th year has already fallen. The ups and downs will eventually end in price. The key is to go through this year and how will it go next year?
The overall market conditions so far this year can be summarized as follows:
Price: fast rise and fall, high frequency cycle is short, and finally end in price drop!
Demand: The overall demand is reduced, and the operating rate of the cardboard line is as low as 60%!
Capacity: Paper and cardboard production capacity increased, and the carton line was basically flat!
State waste: first rise and then decline, but the capital market is optimistic about the late market, especially the innovation and expansion of the national waste recycling channel is expected to completely improve the recovery rate.
External waste: first tight and then loose, the second half of the year will significantly increase the amount of waste, and will not stop importing by 2021.
Profit: The profit of the large paper mills in the first half of the year was 15% compared with last year. In the second half of the year, the impact of the volume and price fell, and the small paper mills were basically under the break-even line, and they would basically withdraw from the market in the later period.
Cardboard mill: Due to the decline in sales volume, lower prices, and rising cost after expansion, the overall year is in a low-profit state, and individual manufacturers are slightly different.
Large carton factory: The output has been reduced due to the decline in demand, but the overall order is stable. At the same time, the price of raw paper is lower this year. The decrease in the price of the client has caused the gross profit to rise and the overall profit is better.
The third-tier factory: due to the decline in the price of cardboard, the price of the carton remained stable and the overall profitability of the sales volume decreased over last year.
Hidden worry:
1. The capacity of large paper mills this year will be reduced due to the decline in demand and the impact of foreign waste imports. How can the production capacity after production be digested under reasonable profits?
2. Many of the new paperboard lines put into operation by the secondary plant this year are overcapacity caused by the decline in demand, and how to digest it.
3. Although the third-grade factory is operating well this year, the issue of the mandatory requirements of the national environmental protection norms and the renewal of the low-rent contract that has gradually expired in the previous period will lead to the stability of the next year's operation. The more critical concern is the overall cardboard operation of the secondary plant. Unstable competition will lead to the turmoil of the second-tier factory directly joining the cart order, which will lead to a fundamental worry about the increase in the uncertainty of order stability next year. To put it simply, the third-level factory needs to pay attention to:
Can the factory be opened next year? Can the order be saved?
Difficulties are there every year, but it will be even harder next year! Similarly, it’s difficult to close the customs! As long as you don’t want to stop, there will be a way to go! What’s more, when everyone is a little pessimistic, there are a few big things happening at the end of the carton industry. It is worth everyone's expectations.
Pulp futures in the last period
Officially launched on November 26, 2018
The intuitive impact of the discovery of value, risk aversion, and proper speculation on the industry.
Paper industry: The paper industry has the most direct impact, the highest level of participation and the strongest operation. Because of the advantages of capital, large paper mills will use this platform to increase the impact on the pulp market and thus affect the market of the original paper, making the overall low paper prices tend to be reasonable and stable this year, thus achieving stable output and stable prices. This stable price situation is very conducive to the stability of the profit level of the big paper mills and the gradual increase of the total profit. The key point is that the stability of the paper price will lead to the stability of the price of the waste in the upstream countries and the stability of the waste paper traders. The operation is stable; the price of the paperboard factory will be stabilized, and the profit level of the paperboard factory will be stabilized. Under the premise of stable price and profit, the paperboard factory will have enough energy to invest in technology research and development, improve efficiency, serve customers, and develop carton customers. Thereby moving towards deeper and farther operations.
Second-level factory: Conditional enterprises use part of the surplus capital to participate in pulp futures trading, and use the opportunity of short selling to realize the loss of profits caused by the decline of the paper market. At the same time, through the reverse operation of pulp futures price and the reverse operation of forward price of cardboard and cardboard, the risk is hedged and the profit is stable. That is, if the pulp is bearish in the long-term, the forward price of the paperboard will be bullish; on the contrary, the long-term price of the forward-looking paper is expected to fall. Leverage the leverage of pulp futures, actively explore the carton market, cooperate with large-scale carton customers to expect the stable price of carton and lock the forward price of carton customers, and follow the estimated loss of the forward price of the carton, and reverse the operation in the pulp futures market. The trading volume of the same profit and loss amount is hedged to ensure that the guarantee is not ill-conceived, so that there is a stable source of carton.
Three-level factory: The third-level factory is difficult to have large operation space in the pulp futures trading. Some powerful third-level factories can use the pulp futures transaction and the paperboard factory to sign the forward cardboard price contract to carry out the two-way reverse operation to ensure the inner bank. Loss of the function of the embankment. There is also the use of their own judgment of the overall market to do speculative trading of pulp futures, after all, the investment is not very high leverage, trading margin as long as 4%, the lowest two hands 20 tons, that is, according to 6000 one ton estimate, 6000x20X4% = 4,800 yuan, 4,800 yuan can do 120,000 business.
External waste quota continues to increase
Ensure that imports are not stopped by 2021.
Waste in the paper industry has always been a stable and reliable source of domestic products, especially the indispensable raw materials for high-end kraft paper. The implementation of the foreign waste import policy in the early stage coupled with the skyrocketing market in China last year directly led to the situation that the paper mills had no rice, so that “Luoyang paper expensive†and “one paper is hard to find†completely disrupted the stability of the entire industry chain and caused industry monopoly. The chaotic scenes of intensification, ups and downs of swindling, third-level factories and some waste paper businesses at a loss are chilling.
With the clearing and stabilization of the external waste policy, this part of the supply stability will stabilize the domestic waste paper market, and then compress the space of speculative waste paper prices to stabilize the supply price of waste paper and stabilize the price of the original paper.
Under the premise of continuous and stable import of pulp futures and external waste, the source of the price of speculative waste paper has been blocked, and the overall price stability has brought stability to the overall industry.
The finalization of the national economic conference and the determination of the three cores of "restlessness, reassurance and confidence" of private enterprises have laid a solid guarantee for sustained and reliable development of the overall development of the market.
As the packaging industry in the national economy has always been indispensable, although only about 1.56% of GDP is not an independent pillar industry, but the operation of the packaging industry itself directly affects the cost of about 70% of manufacturing companies. As a manufacturing country, in addition to heavy-duty industry, which does not require carton packaging, most of the people's livelihood light industry and food industry need cardboard boxes as outer packaging. In a sense, the carton market is one of the barometers of Chinese manufacturing. The adjustment of the National Economic Work Conference and the reaffirmation of private enterprises will greatly stabilize the operational determination and confidence of this part of the enterprise. At the same time, private enterprises almost undertake the manufacture of most of the products of the people's livelihood, thus stabilizing this part of the carton. The stability of the industry with greater demand, there is a problem with the carton factory, whether it is to buy your home or buy his home.
The G20 summit will be held soon, the Chinese and American leaders will promptly communicate with each other and the economic and trade negotiations resumed between China and the United States will continue to be positive for the foreign trade market next year.
A US-China telephone directly pushed up the US stock market, followed by a red-hot Asian stock market. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose rapidly, and the psychological line of 7 was saved to 6.88. In this flipping situation, a positive imagination space has been added to the Sino-US trade war. Although the retaliatory tariffs of 50 billion US dollars to 200 billion US dollars have a great impact on China's foreign trade export confidence index, in fact, the continuous increase of foreign trade exports and the increase of the US deficit and the US export policy to China have caused the American people, businessmen and farmers. The troubles look, especially in the premise that the US mid-term elections are undecided, the probability that the trade war is likely to develop from the war of words to the actual war and then continue to turn to the war of words is increasing, and finally talks and stops towards rationality in the war of words. This possible change will have a stabilizing effect on China's foreign trade exports.
The upcoming Expo in Shanghai
The first Expo will be held immediately at the national strategic level, which will have a very positive effect on China and the world economy. The big role needs to be said. From a small point of view, the direct effect of the Expo will be to promote more and more convenient export of high-quality foreign goods to China, thus using the increased opportunities of imports to balance the long-standing trade surplus of China's exports. The aspect is also the ability to use China's huge market to share China's development dividends with foreign countries, which is more conducive to the development of multilateral and bilateral relations with the world.
From the perspective of the carton industry, it is also a bullish one. On the one hand, because imported products will increase, more products will need to be packaged or modified after they arrive in China, which will increase the demand for carton packaging. On the other hand, as imports continue to increase, they will continue to decrease. Foreign trade disputes and frictions gradually form a deeper depth of your trade pattern with you and me, thus further stabilizing and increasing China's exports so as to maintain and increase the demand for packaging and cartons for export.
Responsible editor: Ge
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